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How to Calculate Expected Frequency of an Event Based on Probability

Understanding how to calculate the expected frequency of an event can empower parents to teach their children more about mathematics and probability. This guide aims to break down the concept using simple terms, factors, multiples, and fractions.

What is Probability?

Probability is a way to quantify the likelihood of an event occurring. It is expressed as a fraction where:

For example, if you have a standard six-sided die, the probability of rolling a 4 is:

[ \text{Probability of rolling a 4} = \frac{1}{6} ]

Here, there is one successful outcome (rolling a 4) out of six possible outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

What is Expected Frequency?

The expected frequency is the predicted number of times an event will occur in a given number of trials. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of the event by the total number of trials.

Formula for Expected Frequency

[ \text{Expected Frequency} = \text{Probability of Event} \times \text{Total Trials} ]

Example: Calculating Expected Frequency

Let’s imagine we have a bag containing 10 marbles: 4 red, 3 blue, and 3 green. We want to determine how often we can expect to draw a red marble if we pick 30 marbles randomly from the bag.

Step 1: Calculate Probability

  1. Find the probability of drawing a red marble: [ \text{Probability of Red Marble} = \frac{\text{Number of Red Marbles}}{\text{Total Number of Marbles}} = \frac{4}{10} ]

  2. Simplify the fraction: [ \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5} ]

Step 2: Calculate Expected Frequency

  1. Decide the total number of trials (in this case, the number of marbles you will draw): [ \text{Total Trials} = 30 ]

  2. Apply the expected frequency formula: [ \text{Expected Frequency of Red Marbles} = \frac{2}{5} \times 30 ]

  3. To multiply, convert 30 to a fraction: [ \text{Expected Frequency} = \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{30}{1} = \frac{2 \times 30}{5 \times 1} = \frac{60}{5} = 12 ]

Thus, we expect to draw 12 red marbles if we pick 30 marbles randomly.

Conclusion

By following these steps, parents can help their children understand how to calculate expected frequency using probability. This fundamental concept not only enhances their mathematical skills but also promotes logical thinking and analysis. Engaging in real-life examples, such as games or simple experiments, can further solidify this knowledge, making learning enjoyable and effective.